Manufacturing US Economy At-a-Glance
November 2025
The manufacturing outlook is gaining traction, though progress varies across sectors.
⚙ Heavy-Duty Truck Production is expected to turn upward through 2026 as freight activity improves and revenue trends strengthen.
🏭 Machinery and Metalworking Orders are rising, signaling healthier demand as industrial utilization rates climb and commodity prices support new investment.
💡 Electrical Equipment and Construction Machinery are seeing continued growth tied to grid expansion and infrastructure projects.
✈ Aerospace and Chemicals will maintain steady gains through 2027, while Food Production faces margin pressure from cost-sensitive consumers.
🛡 Defense and Energy remain bright spots, supported by geopolitical demand and ongoing investment in capacity.
For business leaders, the message is clear: momentum is returning, but efficiency, pricing strategy, and timing remain critical to capture the upside.
The Private Sector Never Sleeps – You Can Still Make an Informed Budget for 2026
November 2025
“The US is officially at a record length for the lapse in government appropriations, but you cannot put a pause on budget season if you are in the private sector. Most government-sourced data is delayed, potentially adding anxiety following a year of volatile economic policy, but we are not flying blind and neither are you.
The Weekly Economic Index (created by Daniel J. Lewis, Karel Mertens, and James H. Stock and published via the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) signals ongoing economic growth, in line with our expectations. Weekly readings throughout the third quarter and stretching into early November imply GDP growth of around 2.0% to 2.7% compared to one year ago. The Weekly Economic Index confirms no drastic moves in economic activity since the shutdown began. So far, so good.
Looking into 2026, we can still count on our time-tested leading indicators. Our own ITR Leading Indicator™, the US National Financial Conditions Index, and the US Total Industry Capacity Utilization Rate signal improving momentum into at least mid-2026."
ITR Trends 10
The Trends 10 summary provides a dynamic look at the economy. Each major segment of the economy is shown in terms of where it is in the business cycle. Each phase of the business cycle (A, B, C, D) carries its own Management Objectives™ which enable firms to enhance profitability while preparing for the next phase of the business cycle.
Equipped with accurate insights from the Trends Report, your business will have the foresight to make data-driven decisions and craft strategic plans that promote business growth. By anticipating market trends and efficiently allocating resources, you can mitigate risks and secure a competitive edge!
