Core US Economy At-a-Glance
March 2026
The core US economy is picking up speed, but this is not a boom. 📊
Retail Sales are rising, though growth remains relatively mild. 📈
Industrial Production is gaining momentum, supported by solid consumer financials. 🏭
Capital Goods New Orders are improving as utilization rises and cash remains available. 💼
Soft spots persist in single-family and nonresidential construction, but they are not derailing the broader outlook. 🏗️
Watch out for inflation-driven margin pressure and the risk of “profitless prosperity.” A mild plateau is likely in 2027, and growth will resume in 2028. 🔍
Domestic Capital Goods Market Improves as Middle East Conflict Escalates
March 2026
“Following the supply chain bullwhip and tariff uncertainty of the last few years, it can be difficult to trust budding momentum in the economy. However, the data is clear that B2B spending is not just improving, but it actually mildly outperformed our forecast.
US Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders (excluding aircraft) in 2025 came in 3.6% higher than in 2024. Growth was weighted toward the back half of that year, with 4Q25 being 6.1% higher than 4Q24. Prices for capital equipment were up 3.7% over that same quarter, suggesting that higher prices account for a portion of growth, but also that volumes are up. Our growth outlook for 2026 remains solid."
ITR Trends 10
The Trends 10 summary provides a dynamic look at the economy. Each major segment of the economy is shown in terms of where it is in the business cycle. Each phase of the business cycle (A, B, C, D) carries its own Management Objectives™ which enable firms to enhance profitability while preparing for the next phase of the business cycle.
Equipped with accurate insights from the Trends Report, your business will have the foresight to make data-driven decisions and craft strategic plans that promote business growth. By anticipating market trends and efficiently allocating resources, you can mitigate risks and secure a competitive edge!
